looking at public shows that show barack obama slightly ahead, most within the margin of error, including cnn today. they assume in those polls a bigger number of democrat also show up to the polls than most people think is likely because they are tending to use the sample from 2008, where yeah, democrats were up about plus eight in terms of turnout. in 2004, republicans were up about plus four. i think this year somewhere in between. if you look at the public polls and their methodology and sampling, they're oversampling democrating as compared to what everyone thinks is going to happen. we have the energy on our side this year which is different. second is it's just awful close. so even if you assume that more democrats are going to show up than republicans, at those kind of numbers, still these polls are within the margin of error. the rcp average is within the margin of error, which is their politics analysis. joe i think it will come down to the ground game. you're a guy. we're a purple state. we're not red and blue. >> i told my co-anchors it's not just ohio, it's not just cincinnati, i